The
challenges of Arab Spring
Starting in December 2010, the world community faced major
protests in Tunisia and spreading to Egypt and other North African and Arab
states against the autocratic regimes in that had ruled over their countries for
nearly 50 years. The people living in
certain Arabic countries are about losing nothing, so they tend to struggle for
their freedom. The negative factors like
human right violation, absolute monarchy, corruption, unemployment, censorship,
extreme poverty, increasing prices and low salary etc. led to overthrown
governments in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, and Yemen and major protests and ongoing
sustained civil disorders in Iran, Oman, Bahrain and Syria. But the main point
is what the future challenges and outcomes are for further stages of ongoing
processes:
There are several challenges, but we can write about
some of those challenges, but not necessarily all of them. But before having
done that, we should emphasize that the outcomes of the movements across different
nations were different; therefore we should look at individual cases and draw
conclusions accordingly, if we wish to be precise with our interpretation of
the situation. But, of course, with that precaution in mind, we can still make
some generalizations about the challenges the Arab Spring could potentially
face in those countries.
Perhaps, the biggest challenge looming ahead is the
projected persistence of economic problems even after the democratic elections
and restoration of constitutional freedoms like freedom of speech, the press,
the right of peaceful assembly etc. So now they become reality from formality
in those countries. Unemployment rates in those countries are very high and
many factories were stopped working for a while; investment is low, as
investors do not rush there due to continuing political uncertainty and
instability. Moreover, foreign investors who still hold an investment in these
countries tend to not making long-term investment, because they do not see any
return on investment. There are structural problems with economies of most Arab
nations, in particular, Egypt, Syria, Yemen, etc. and they are not likely to be fixed in the
short run. So, democratic gains (despite
their significance) do not guarantee economic stability in the coming months or
even years. On the other hand, it would lead to another instabilities and
protests in the region.
The Arab Spring has changed (and continues to change)
the political scene of those nations. Islamic parties (in particular, the
Muslim Brotherhood) are most popular and sophisticated political organizations
in such countries as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, etc. The question is to what extent
those parties will meet the expectations of citizens and how loyal they will
remain to democratic principles. Therefore, it is difficult to see in what
direction these nations will move given absolute or relative superiority of
Islamic parties in their respective political systems. In addition, the
political parties’ primary aim to get the people supports and votes over people
via making some much-needed reforms.
Another problem is the growing antagonism toward
Israel in such nations as Egypt, Jordan, etc. that could potentially undermine
stability in the Middle East. Israeli government tends to use the situation for
its own interest. For instance, Israeli government started constructing 450 new
homes[1] in
the West Bank despite increasing international pressure. As a result of the changing dynamics in the
region, the political balance may change in Palestine, as well. Imagine, the
next Palestinian government is more radical with their demands, what would
happen to already stalled Israel-Palestine peace process then?
Thus, I think we should focus on economic revival and forming
regional partnership of certain Arabic countries rather than on political
stability. For me, the economic stability and partnership in the North Africa
is extremely important factor for now and for further development of Arab
Spring. Building economic ties among the North African countries would inspire
them taking a lead on economic growth and prosperity. As for me, there are
several ways to promote sustainable economic development in those countries:
a) Establishing financial systems and markets in order to improve resource
allocation ( through Islamicfinance, Mediterranean Investment Bank, Union of
Arab Banks, Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa ( BADEA)
b) Continuous
support participation in regional and international trade ( like CUSTOM MED[2], the first EU partnership project - dealing
with regional trade was launched in 5th June, 2012 )
c) Increase
in human capital – providing equal opportunities for women and men in terms of
employment and encourage more women participation in work force
d) Encouraging and Promoting
small and medium-sized enterprises
The Arab Spring, 5th
wave of Democratization, though successful in some countries, still did not get
as much success in other Arab nations. I think the main challenge of Arab uprisings
was not to overthrow the governments and form new ones; the point was to
overthrow worse ones and give an opportunity the other Arabic states taking
steps towards political and structural reforms.
Precisely, it was a lesson for them, what they have to learn.
